Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 67676.453911 71602.939979 75535.971419 79768.175076 84190.561914 88672.296731 93554.530043
2025-03-23 61503.518161 67518.280518 73719.533301 80581.412571 87952.074986 95621.850675 104196.713675
2025-03-30 57065.308100 64510.356685 72363.204973 81244.022032 90988.365145 101334.795386 113131.016715
2025-04-06 53291.787491 61762.384544 70870.503202 81360.278918 93074.605681 105720.498245 120370.238593
2025-04-13 50095.688080 59350.432003 69471.733661 81315.371405 94745.108850 109450.889124 126720.673632
2025-04-20 48183.000826 58202.522741 69324.351665 82520.528224 97683.006507 114490.871540 134460.544152
2025-04-27 46512.695434 57196.259303 69217.866161 83662.921758 100460.096017 119286.525464 141889.007151
2025-05-04 44712.975861 55921.676470 68697.704815 84232.584044 102500.140755 123185.610727 148260.873144
2025-05-11 42776.746861 54379.838376 67770.056907 84237.421976 103808.299944 126185.503842 153559.106696
2025-05-18 41133.646512 53104.341466 67080.947352 84453.306250 105305.529653 129363.606321 159041.910613
2025-05-25 39564.944292 51844.634637 66343.709598 84549.750106 106609.891359 132279.818564 164198.867483
2025-06-01 38585.154434 51258.144094 66376.494640 85537.475280 108954.981869 136416.049828 170807.912941
2025-06-08 36979.605052 49850.598388 65374.793255 85245.388012 109751.705584 138724.754775 175284.216799
2025-06-15 36234.863726 49494.483154 65645.708916 86501.862884 112432.096582 143310.569660 182533.863740
2025-06-22 35320.548110 48882.591154 65564.536773 87294.514191 114526.754933 147186.107432 188941.816767
2025-06-29 34163.487336 47913.109030 64993.559692 87438.327567 115791.080015 150035.283000 194100.929439
2025-07-06 32991.652740 46880.836345 64303.387315 87395.374263 116793.601813 152545.780603 198841.480023
2025-07-13 32472.645771 46683.101979 64662.671731 88674.024779 119452.123076 157108.424076 206137.341745
2025-07-20 31955.965616 46465.749055 64978.768208 89885.141140 122022.374914 161570.862202 213335.625858
2025-07-27 31212.317511 45916.603129 64839.512566 90488.939994 123808.048570 165053.131301 219326.813466
2025-08-03 30260.441742 45053.867228 64260.085148 90494.079704 124806.876021 167537.150246 224069.713350
2025-08-10 29444.969895 44350.614943 63867.518394 90722.870839 126079.275318 170361.266249 229248.473820
2025-08-17 28618.447830 43605.582781 63395.290633 90825.078001 127171.831956 172950.452650 234135.413733